Hello and happy Monday to everyone.
I hope you had a great Thanksgiving even in these Covid crazy times. Myself, we did not have our usual amount of family over for Thanksgiving to minimize and be safe.
Now that we are past the election and fully bought back into the models, this will be the last weekly Monday email. We plan on sending these emails the first Monday of each month recapping the last month. We want to continue these emails to keep clients informed and educated. We will just start doing this on a monthly basis.
Reminder, Roth IRA conversions deadline with us to get processed and implemented by December 31st is December 14th please.
Mon 11/23 +1.13%
Tues 11/24 +1.50%
Wed 11/25 -0.05%
Thurs 11/26 % Market closed for Thanksgiving
Fri 11/27 +0.01%
Last week +2.16%
Look for tech stocks to come roaring back and help drive the S&P 500 higher into year-end, says this strategist.
Stock investors could be forgiven for some fatigue that is showing up on Monday, the last day of what has been a blockbuster month for stocks.
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.24% and Dow industrials DJIA, +0.12% are set for their best Novembers since 1928, with the Dow also set for its biggest monthly return since January 1987.
But there is still some fuel for buying for the next few weeks, says our call of the day from Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter.
“While we do believe that many bearish headwinds persist in this market, we no longer view short-term price action with a bearish context due to the concept of ‘market euphoria,” Kobeissi tells clients in a newsletter. “The S&P 500 has continuously driven to psychological targets, such as 3600 and a new all-time high, which can easily drive the index to 3700+.”
And while the U.S. is seeing COVID-19 related shutdowns, the economic data continue to hold up thus far, he says.
“FAANG (Facebook FB, +0.80%, Apple AAPL, +0.48%, Amazon.com AMZN, +0.32%, Netflix NFLX, +1.31% and Alphabet’s Google GOOGL, +1.29% ), in particular, have the potential to recover and lead the next leg higher as hospitality stocks have taken the lead for this initial move to all-time highs,” says Kobeissi.
Markets cheer Yellen pick for Treasury, seeing her focus on fixing the economy and not politics.
Stocks rallied as news leaked out that President-elect Joe Biden has selected Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary.
The former Federal Reserve chair is a widely respected economist who is expected to be pragmatic, focused on fixing the economy and not pursuing a new regulatory regime for banks that some on Wall Street have feared.
President-elect Joe Biden’s choice of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was seen as a win for markets, since the former Federal Reserve chair should focus on fixing the economy rather than the progressive Democratic agenda feared by some investors.
The first woman Fed chief would also be the first woman Treasury Secretary and faces unprecedented challenges of massive unemployment and a record level of debt, as the government spends even more to reverse the impact of the pandemic during the Biden administration.
“To me it shows Biden is taking stuff pretty seriously and definitely not pandering to the left. She’s a very serious economic thinker, and they have some very serious problems to deal with,” said Barry Knapp, director research for Ironsides Macroeconomics.
“There’s so many outcomes that could have been worse for the banking sector. For me that was the real risk of that Treasury secretary appointment was you could get someone that was hawkish on the banking sector,” said Knapp. One market fear was that Biden could have nominated someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who is outspoken about regulating banks.
Yellen, a labor economist, will likely be a strong advocate for fiscal support, rather than someone seen as partisan. “So overall, if the result is less partisan, more focused on economic recovery, and someone the market is comfortable with — I would say that is a positive development for the market, but more importantly for the economy as a whole,” Mills wrote.
Yellen served one term as Fed chair until President Donald Trump replaced her with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Global Investing Giants Are Making Their Post-Covid Stock Bets NOVEMBER 25, 2020 • ABHISHEK VISHNOI
Some of the world’s biggest investors say it’s time to position portfolios for an end to the pandemic. One of JP Morgan Asset Management Inc.’s recommendations is to buy beaten-down shares of travel companies, airlines and hotels. Fidelity International Ltd.’s multi-asset team is increasing holdings in regions such as Europe that are badly hit by the virus, betting they’ll get better.
Franklin Templeton contends it’s still too early to move away from places like Asia that have better handled the crisis. Even as all three firms look beyond surging cases and renewed lockdowns to the prospect of a vaccinated population achieving herd immunity sometime over the next two years, their at times divergent views on how to invest underscore the high stakes for money managers during what could be a pivotal moment for markets. Progress on Covid-19 vaccines this month has already triggered wild shifts in relative performance among industries, countries and stock-market investment styles. Vaccinations in the U.S. will “hopefully” start in less than three weeks, Moncef Slaoui, the head of the federal government’s program to accelerate a vaccine, said on CNN on Nov. 22. That came after Pfizer Inc. and its partner BioNTech SE, and Moderna Inc., said their virus shots are 95% effective. A vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc prevented a majority of people from getting the disease. An index of global stocks has risen more than 4% since Nov. 9, the day Pfizer first indicated that its vaccine was more than 90% effective. The equity rally is extending even as investors consider hurdles such as ultra-low temperature storage and distribution for some vaccines. U.S. stocks hit fresh peaks on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing above 30,000 for the first time. Global shares are poised for the best month ever while Asian equities are on track for best gains since 2009 this month. But not everyone is buying into such a rotation. For Stephen Dover, the head of equities at Franklin Templeton, there are still months at a minimum before any vaccine can be widely implemented, and that means Asian stocks are still the place to be.
From Fox Business
Black Friday hits record $9B in US consumer spending.
Black Friday shoppers in the U.S. spent a record $9 billion this year, despite concerns of surging COVID-19 cases across the U.S., according to data from Adobe Analytics.
That figure represents a nearly 22% year-over-year increase in consumer spending; Black Friday shoppers spent $7.4 billion in 2019, Adobe Analytics found.
“We are seeing strong growth as consumers continue to move shopping from offline to online this year,” Adobe Digital Insights Director Taylor Schreiner said in a written statement. “New consoles, phones, smart devices and TVs that are traditional Black Friday purchases are sharing online shopping cart space this year with unorthodox Black Friday purchases such as groceries, clothes and alcohol, that would previously have been purchased in-store.”
Consumers spent $6.3 million per minute shopping on Black Friday, and the average shopper spent about $27.50. Smartphone purchases cost consumers $3.6 billion, representing a 25.3% year-over-year increase and 40% of total online spending on Friday.
Adobe expects shoppers to spend between $10.8 billion to $12.7 billion on Cyber Monday, representing a 15% to 35% increase in spending since last year, breaking another record. Additionally, shoppers spent $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving, representing a 22% increase over Thanksgiving in 2019.
Adobe Analytics analyzes data from 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 80 of the 100 largest U.S. retailers.
Global 63,198,706 cases 1,467,503 deaths
US 13,752,897 cases 273,123 deaths
KS 155,136 cases 1,529 deaths
MO 311,691 cases 4,065 deaths
Highlights from analysts and economics
From JP Morgan
Weekly Market Recap
Large technology stocks have led equity markets this year, prompting investors to look for future innovations to drive future returns. After a year in which Tesla was added to the S&P 500 and Exxon was removed, investors ought to consider the shifts underway in the energy sector as one possibility. Clean energy stocks have risen 69% year-to-date, while traditional energy stocks have fallen 37%. This provides some powerful evidence for the ongoing debate on the alpha-generating potential of sustainability strategies. This outperformance has a few catalysts. One, costs have come down considerably for renewables, increasing the viability of these options. Two, policy is coalescing around mitigating the impacts of climate change through cleaner energy. President-elect Biden is likely to pursue energy re-regulation, rejoin the Paris Climate accord and advance clean energy through potential infrastructure spending. Internationally, 30% of the EU’s EUR 750 billion COVID-19 recovery fund will be raised through green bonds. China has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060. Still, there are risks to a greener outlook. Renewables is still a burgeoning industry in which many companies may fail. Storage remains a key challenge. Despite the rise of renewables, about 85% of energy still comes from fossil fuels. However, with challenged earnings and oil prices likely range-bound, investors may consider diversifying energy allocations, which will require careful stock selection in both traditional and alternative energy sectors.
Notes on the Week Ahead
Sadly, the next few months are likely to see the worst of the pandemic in cases and fatalities. In addition, over the same few months a heightened disruption to certain industries will likely lead to a sharp slowdown in both GDP and employment growth. Despite this, the distribution of a vaccine in 2021 will almost certainly trigger a very strong economic revival and by 2022, the economy should be well on its way to a full recovery. That being said, investors should recognize the implications of emerging from the pandemic with much higher government debt, much lower interest rates and much more stretched valuations. Most importantly, we should acknowledge that any economic recovery will not repair the personal and economic losses that will be suffered by millions from the renewed pandemic and we should all, as neighbors and citizens, do what we can to slow the spread of the disease.
One wild card in the short run, is the issue of a new Coronavirus relief bill. While it is obvious that the Senate and House should find a compromise as soon as possible, it may be that politics pushes the bill beyond the inauguration of President Biden on January 20th. If that happens, the danger of declining GDP or employment over the winter will be exacerbated. However, even in this circumstance, the passage of a bill early in the new Congress should allow for a revival.
This resurgence will likely strengthen markedly over the spring, summer and fall of 2021 as the vaccine is distributed. Moreover, as this happens around the globe, a “pent-up demand to party” should be unleashed, as families finally get to travel, eat out at restaurants, and have long-postponed family celebrations and get-togethers. In this environment, the economy could log high-single-digit growth in the second half of 2021, cutting the unemployment rate to below 5% early in 2022.
In short, while the economy should stage a strong rebound when a vaccine is distributed, investors should recognize the greater challenge of achieving strong long-term after-tax returns given the future prospect of higher taxes and the current reality of higher valuations.
Finally, it is important to note the global and cyclical impacts of an eventual rebound. The very good recent news on vaccines suggests that it will be possible to end the global pandemic, and not just the U.S. pandemic, over the next one to two years. For U.S. investors, this is an added reason to look at both emerging market equities and developed country equities outside the U.S. where valuations are a lot more reasonable. In addition, a cyclical rebound, with still very low short-term interest rates, should lead to a steepening yield curve, benefiting value stocks and particularly financial stocks.
It may take some months for the investment themes of the global recovery to play out, particularly given the increasingly grim news on current infections and fatalities around the world. However, for long-term investors, it is important be positioned appropriately to take advantage of this recovery today and to trust in the logic of the 2021 recovery rather than the sad emotion of this pandemic year of 2020.
***Open enrollment is happening now. Deadline is 12/07!! Here is a referral for you…
As an independent insurance agent that contracts with major carriers, I can help you decide which plan is right for YOU! Whether you are in the market for Medicare Supplements, Prescription Drug Plans, Advantage Plans, or just want to know your options, I can guide you through the process.
Estate Planning Webinar Tuesday December 7 at 6:00pm, Wednesday December 8 at 1:00pm & Tuesday December 15 at 12:00pm
To Register for either date please email Stacy at [email protected]
a. Pros and cons of a Will based estate plan
b. Pros and cons of a Trust based estate plan
c. Co-hosted by Glenn Stockton with Stockton & Stern Law firm
Social Security and Tax Strategy Webinar on Tuesday December 8 at 6:00pm, Wednesday December 9 at 11:00am & Monday December 14 at 6:00pm
To Register for either date please email Stacy at [email protected]
If you would like a copy of my 30 minute recording of Community Café on the topic of “Tax saving Strategies”, please contact Stacy and we can email it to you. [email protected]
Referral rewards program:
Mark Roberts, President
Affinity Asset Management
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Overland Park, KS 66213
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