Investment Commentary – November 13, 2019

Year to Date Market Indices as of Market Close November 13, 2019
• Dow 27,691 (18.71%)
• S&P 3,091 (23.34%)
• NASDAQ 8,486 (27.89%)
• Gold $1,464 (13.98%)
• Oil $57.03 (23.53%)
• Barclay Bond Aggregate (7.91%)
• All World Index (19.16%)
• Fed Funds Rate 1.75 (Three -0.25 rate cuts 2019)
• US Real GDP Growth 1.9 Q3/2019 (Down from 2.0 in Q2)

Trump says U.S.-China deal could happen soon and speaks at New York fundraiser

President Donald Trump on Tuesday called a U.S.-China trade deal close, as he also spoke at a fundraiser in New York.


Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, Trump described the first phase of a trade agreement as something that “could happen soon,” but gave no details on finalizing a pact. In the speech he also touted U.S. job creation and blasted the Federal Reserve, a frequent punching bag, for cutting interest rates too slowly. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear in back-to-back testimonies on Capitol Hill Wednesday and Thursday.

U.S. stocks DJIA, +0.00% SPX, +0.16% COMP, +0.26% held on to modest gains as Trump spoke. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished unchanged, while the S&P 500 index advanced around 5 points and the Nasdaq added 22 points.


While in New York, Trump spoke at a luncheon fundraiser hosted by America First Action, a super PAC supporting his re-election.

The organization raised $4 million through the event, CNBC reported.

Trowe Price RMD Reminder:
Whether you’re working or retired at age 70½, you must start taking withdrawals from your Traditional, Rollover, SEP, and SIMPLE IRAs. These mandatory minimum withdrawals are your required minimum distributions (RMDs), and we can help you understand what you need to know.

What you need to know about RMDs; with Traditional IRAs, you must take your first RMD by April 1 of the year following the year in which you turn age 70½. You must then take an RMD by December 31 each year thereafter.

If you have multiple IRAs, you must calculate the appropriate RMD for each one. However, the total distribution amount can then be taken from any one or more IRAs to satisfy the required amount.

Once the RMD is distributed, you don’t have to spend it, but you may choose to reinvest it in a taxable account. An RMD cannot remain in the tax-deferred account.

Generally, your RMDs are taxed as regular income within the year they are taken. RMDs can also be subject to state and local taxes. Please consult a tax advisor for more detailed information.
If you don’t take the correct RMD amount, IRS penalties may apply.

NOTE: If you have employer retirement accounts, you will have to contact your current and/or prior employer to calculate the RMD and request a distribution.

Around the web

Make that five: For the first time since February, the S&P 500 has risen for five weeks in a row. The major indexes extended their recent steady climb, setting new record highs and gaining around 1% for the week as quarterly earnings season continued to provide some modest lift.

Earnings outlook: While third-quarter earnings results continued to come in slightly ahead of expectations, the outlook for the fourth quarter has recently worsened. Analysts project that fourth-quarter earnings among S&P 500 companies will slip 0.4%, according to FactSet. If there’s another decline, it would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of earnings contraction—the first such instance in three and a half years.

Tariff rollback?: Growing optimism about prospects for a partial trade agreement between the United States and China lifted stocks on Thursday, as Chinese officials indicated they expected the two nations would roll back tariffs imposed earlier in the conflict. However, President Trump said on Friday that the White House hadn’t committed to such concessions.

Consumer contentment: With holiday shopping around the corner, a gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment rose, easing concerns about prospects of a recession. The University of Michigan said on Friday that its preliminary index of November consumer sentiment was up slightly from the previous month.

The views presented are not intended to be relied on as a forecast, research or investment advice and are the opinions of the sources cited and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. They are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investments.