Investment Commentary – July 15th, 2015
Market Indices as of Market Close July 15th, 2015
Dow 18,050 (1.27% YTD)
S&P 500 2,107 (2.36% YTD)
NASDAQ 5,099 (7.66% YTD)
10-year Treasury 2.36% (1.64 52 week low /high 2.66)
Gold $1,148 (52 week low $1,135/high $1,322)
Oil $51.46 (52 week low $48.71/high $95.10)
“A Volatile Week Ends Flat”
Despite all the drama, official interventions and late-night summits, markets and the global economy are not too far off the trajectory they were on in early 2015. Growth is slow but positive, inflation tame, rates modestly higher and the dollar stronger.
“Yellen Late Year Rate Hike Still On?”
U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in June as the cost of gasoline and a range of other goods rose, indicating the recent oil-driven downward spiral in prices was abating.
Other data on Wednesday showed a rebound in industrial production last month and a pick-up in factory activity in New York State in July. The signs of stabilizing manufacturing and firming inflation came as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed remained on track to hike interest rates this year.
“Greek Contagion Update”
While the lives of the Greek people will be interminably changed, the chart of the week shows that the risk of direct contagion from a “Grexit” is low because Greece is now a much smaller (and shrinking) portion of the global economy and markets. For long-term investors, any short-term volatility that may be caused by the deteriorating situation in Greece seems to be well contained.
“Midyear Outlook: One Fund Companies Forecasts Summarized in bullet points”
U.S. – Solid Growth, but Expect Volatility: Accelerating growth, an improving employment picture and benign inflation provide a favorable backdrop for continued investment. But after six years of solid gains, investors should temper expectations.
International- It’s About Companies, Not Countries. Currency weakness and lower energy prices continue to improve the competitiveness of and provide an earnings tailwind for attractively valued export-oriented businesses in Japan and Europe.
Bonds-Interest Rates Likely to Grind Higher: With the Fed signaling a rate increase, the bond market faces a challenging road ahead. But bonds can continue to provide needed diversification in uncertain times.
The views presented are not intended to be relied on as a forecast, research or investment advice and are the opinions of the sources cited and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. They are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.