Hello once again,
I am doing my best to minimize the amount of information in today’s email from previous weeks.
I hope this email finds you healthy, coronavirus free, and of good spirits.
Happy Easter and Passover to everyone.
Our investment committee is made up of Tom Strandell, Angela Lyman, Mike Cy, Mike Axelrod, Pat Rice, Sarah Lee, and myself with a combined 133 years of experience. That is a lot of experience. We each continue to help each other with gathering information for these emails and teleconferences.
Monday 4/6 +7.73%
Tuesday 4/7 -0.12%
Wednesday 4/8 +3.44%
Thursday 4/9 +1.22%
Friday 4/10 Good Friday, Market closed
Last week +12.67%
Since 3/11 day before selling +0.71%
Since 2/19 market high -19.18%
Bond model you are in:
Last week +1.15%
These are large swings and are not normal. We normally don’t experience a +12% in one week. Any of us would be excited if we got 12% in a full year, but to get that in one week is not normal. This entire market cycle is very volatile. Even though the VIX which measures volatility, is down, its still over all pretty high and can have a few low days of activity, followed by one big or two big days of drops or gains.
- Want to thank everyone for reaching out to us to process Roth conversions or moving 10% of your index annuities over into your brokerage accounts. Our office has been swamped, and I am very proud of this group to be able to process so much activity in a short period of time.
- Attorney Glenn Stockton and myself are hosting an estate planning live webinar tomorrow at noon. Requires us to send you an email to click a link if you want to join. Anticipating 1 hour. Q&A allowed. For information or to sign up, please email Kellie or Stacy at [email protected] or [email protected]
- Thank you for the referrals we have been receiving so far. We keep hearing one after another of stories of their advisor taking no action on the market, and no action on tax saving strategies like Roth Conversions.
- Please share this email with anyone you like and invite them to listen in on our teleconferences on Wednesday.
- Globally Coronavirus 1,866,654, 115,269 deaths,
a. Last week cases new 517,603 (increase of 38%), new deaths 40,691 (increase of 54%)
- United State Coronavirus 560,443, 22,115 deaths
a. Last week cases new 190,424 (increase of 51%) 11,220 deaths (increase of 50%)
- US deficit at $22,000,000,000 ($22trillion)
a. If each of the 330,000,000 Americans paid equal share of the deficit, we would each owe $66,000.
- On Friday, China is scheduled to release its first-quarter GDP figures that will reveal how badly the coronavirus crisis damaged the world’s second largest economy. Many economists are predicting the country’s first contraction in decades.
- And many companies will report first quarter earnings this week, which are expected to be dismal because of the coronavirus crisis. Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are set to report during the first half of this week.
- US retail sales and industrial production reports for March are also scheduled to be published on Wednesday, which will offer a further look at the toll coronavirus has taken on the country’s economy.
Highlights from analysts and economists:
- According to CNN: In 2019, S&P 500 companies injected $729 billion into the market through share repurchases. This year was expected to see just as much – if not more – buyback activity. But the economic impact of coronavirus has completely upended that forecast. The stock market is in for a rude awakening as some $364.5 billion worth of buybacks suddenly vanish thanks to the economic downturn. Share repurchase programs will see a significant reduction across the board in 2020. That removes an important layer of stability that’s propped the market up for the past decade. Buyback suspensions could drain $364.5 billion from the stock market. It’s going to be like riding a bucking bronco in the stock market for the next six months
- According to JP Morgan : Regarding the Coronavirus, JP Morgan believes that S Korea is a good template for mortality.
a. S Korea’s mortality rate is about 1.5%.
i. Forecasting GDP. Quarter 2 15%-20% contraction of GDP.
ii. Quarter 3 5%-10% contraction of GDP.
iii. Quarter 4 Surge.
b. Current real unemployment rate is about 15%.
c. Forecasted earnings contraction in the market (S&P 500) of about 16%.
i. Current consensus is a contraction of about 4%.
ii. Disconnect between the forecasts is that companies haven’t given forward-looking numbers.
iii. Earnings season is about to start .
d. They see rising debt levels leading to higher interest rates and inflation
- According to Pimco: They believe The global economy and financial markets should transition from intense near-term pain to gradual healing over the next six to 12 months. However, there is a risk if not a likelihood of an uneven recovery, with significant setbacks along the way. Investors should brace themselves for a very different investment landscape as the weakest areas in the global credit spectrum will be exposed over the next several months.
- From MarketWatch: Historic oil deal reached : OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations on Sunday finalized an unprecedented production cut of nearly 10 million barrels, or a tenth of global supply, in hopes of boosting crashing prices amid the coronavirus pandemic and a price war
- All RMDs are waived this year. Take advantage of that and convert some IRA monies to your Roth IRAs. Roth IRAs grow tax free, withdrawal is tax free, pass it to your kids at death, and no RMD rules.
- 59 ½ rules penalty of 10% waived for 2020 for anyone needing to take a withdrawal from their retirement accounts due to hardship over Coronavirus.
- Roth conversions.
- IRA to IRA transfers from your Index Annuity IRA to your Brokerage account IRA-tax free
- Potential cycle trading. This is where we plan to take 50% of your bonds and buy into stocks. End result as the market comes up, you are a 50/50 mix. We didn’t want to be aggressive and do 100% into stocks.
- Referrals, Referrals, Referrals. Please help us help others. Besides social distancing and keeping others around me and myself healthy, this is what we do best. So many people out there frustrated with lack of any attention or lack of any actions during this time. In an 11 year Bull market, everything seems fine, until we have a market crash like this. Please help introduce us to others.
- Please fill out just one Trusted Contact form you received from C1S (Client One Security) and mail that back in to C1S in their envelope they provided, or scan it and email it to us, and we will submit it for you.
- Any service work following this email or the teleconference, please email our office and we can allocate our team to calling you back to answer questions and process any requests.
Thank you again for taking time to read our emails and join in on the teleconferences to get yourself more informed. I say, “Informed clients have less stress and anxiety”.